Lyn 1896 II vs Ørn Horten
Recent Match Performance
Across 6 and 6 recent matches with recorded scores, respectively, the home side won 0 and the visitors won 2.
Across 4 matches with complete shooting data, the home side averaged 10.8 shots per match and conceded 7 goals in that sample. Across 3 such matches, the visitors averaged 19.3 shots per match and conceded 7 goals.
In recent matches with recorded scores, the home side averaged 1.00 goals per match, against a weighted league reference of 2.04. The visitors averaged 2.00 goals per match, against their weighted league reference of 2.29.
Model & Market Perspective
The largest positive model-market difference concerns a home win for Lyn 1896 II. StochasticBet assigns this outcome a probability of 52.0%, compared with 51.2% in the margin-adjusted Pinnacle market assessment (a difference of +0.9 percentage points).
Pre-Match Betting Perspective
Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 1.74 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.92. At this price, a home win for Lyn 1896 II does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.
Statistical Context & Data Notes
Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.
Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.
Model vs Market
Defensive Edge: Lyn 1896 II
Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.
Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.
Market Momentum
Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-19 15:43:02
6h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | -8.65 pp | — |
| DRAW | +2.20 pp | — |
| AWAY | +6.45 pp | — |
No qualified strong agreement in this window.
24h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | — | — |
| DRAW | — | — |
| AWAY | — | — |
No qualified strong agreement in this window.
Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.