Meshakhte Tkibuli vs FC Rustavi

14 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Meshakhte Tkibuli

FC Rustavi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.5% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 60.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.8% 4.99 DRAW 24.7% 3.80 AWAY 56.6% 1.66

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Rustavi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.0% win probability, compared with 56.6% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Rustavi has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Meshakhte Tkibuli FC Rustavi

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours FC Rustavi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Meshakhte Tkibuli FC Rustavi

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.0

FC Rustavi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Meshakhte Tkibuli FC Rustavi

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Rustavi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Meshakhte Tkibuli ↑ +0.24 (+5.1%)

FC Rustavi ↑ +0.09 (+5.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.