CD Antofagasta vs Deportes Recoleta

06 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

CD Antofagasta

Deportes Recoleta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.0% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 16.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.4% 1.65 DRAW 23.3% 4.08 AWAY 19.4% 4.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates CD Antofagasta clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.0% win probability, compared with 57.4% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CD Antofagasta has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Antofagasta Deportes Recoleta

Shots 17.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours CD Antofagasta, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Antofagasta Deportes Recoleta

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.5

CD Antofagasta has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Antofagasta Deportes Recoleta

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Antofagasta.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CD Antofagasta ↓ -0.11 (-6.1%)

Deportes Recoleta ↑ +0.62 (+14.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.