Ventura County FC vs Tacoma Defiance

14 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Ventura County FC

Tacoma Defiance

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 29.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.2% 2.12 DRAW 24.8% 3.78 AWAY 31.0% 3.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ventura County FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.1% win probability, compared with 44.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Ventura County FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ventura County FC Tacoma Defiance

Shots 10.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ventura County FC Tacoma Defiance

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Ventura County FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ventura County FC Tacoma Defiance

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ventura County FC ↑ +0.08 (+3.9%)

Tacoma Defiance ↓ -0.01 (-0.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.