Dinamo Samarqand vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

10 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Dinamo Samarqand

Qizilqum Zarafshon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 15.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% 1.68 DRAW 25.6% 3.70 AWAY 18.0% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dinamo Samarqand relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.6% win probability, compared with 56.4% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dinamo Samarqand has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dinamo Samarqand Qizilqum Zarafshon

Shots 14.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Dinamo Samarqand, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dinamo Samarqand Qizilqum Zarafshon

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dinamo Samarqand Qizilqum Zarafshon

The combined recent performance profile favours Dinamo Samarqand.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Dinamo Samarqand ↓ -0.05 (-2.7%)

Qizilqum Zarafshon ↑ +1.05 (+25.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.