Neftchi Fergana vs Termez Surkhon

09 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Neftchi Fergana

Termez Surkhon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 75.3% DRAW 15.3% AWAY 9.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.3% 1.31 DRAW 17.0% 5.58 AWAY 10.7% 8.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Neftchi Fergana relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 75.3% win probability, compared with 72.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Neftchi Fergana

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Neftchi Fergana Termez Surkhon

Shots 15.0 · On target 8.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Neftchi Fergana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Neftchi Fergana Termez Surkhon

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Termez Surkhon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Neftchi Fergana Termez Surkhon

The combined recent performance profile favours Neftchi Fergana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Neftchi Fergana ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Termez Surkhon ↓ -0.25 (-2.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.