Xorazm Urganch vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

21 Sep 2026 · 17:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Xorazm Urganch

Qizilqum Zarafshon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.6% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 23.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.4% 2.11 DRAW 30.0% 3.20 AWAY 24.6% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Qizilqum Zarafshon

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Xorazm Urganch Qizilqum Zarafshon

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Qizilqum Zarafshon, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Xorazm Urganch Qizilqum Zarafshon

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Xorazm Urganch has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Xorazm Urganch Qizilqum Zarafshon

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Xorazm Urganch ↑ +0.06 (+2.9%)

Qizilqum Zarafshon ↑ +0.60 (+18.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.