Xorazm Urganch vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

10 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Xorazm Urganch

Sogdiana Jizzakh

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 40.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.3% 2.74 DRAW 28.3% 3.33 AWAY 37.3% 2.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sogdiana Jizzakh relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.9% win probability, compared with 37.3% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sogdiana Jizzakh has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Xorazm Urganch Sogdiana Jizzakh

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Sogdiana Jizzakh, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Xorazm Urganch Sogdiana Jizzakh

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Sogdiana Jizzakh has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Xorazm Urganch Sogdiana Jizzakh

The combined recent performance profile favours Sogdiana Jizzakh.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Xorazm Urganch ↓ -0.06 (-2.1%)

Sogdiana Jizzakh ↑ +0.37 (+17.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.