BFC Daugavpils vs RFS

13 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

BFC Daugavpils

RFS

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.9% DRAW 16.0% AWAY 74.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 9.6% 9.80 DRAW 16.5% 5.74 AWAY 73.9% 1.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

RFS has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

BFC Daugavpils RFS

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

BFC Daugavpils RFS

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.0

RFS has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

BFC Daugavpils RFS

The combined recent performance profile favours RFS.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

BFC Daugavpils ↑ +2.05 (+26.5%)

RFS ↓ -0.02 (-1.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.