Macara vs Emelec

13 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Macara

Emelec

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.8% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 20.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.3% 1.90 DRAW 28.5% 3.35 AWAY 21.2% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Macara

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Macara Emelec

Shots 15.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Macara, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Macara Emelec

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Emelec has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Macara Emelec

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Macara ↓ -0.15 (-7.3%)

Emelec ↑ +0.47 (+11.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.