Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec

04 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Club Atletico Libertad

Emelec

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 30.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.38 DRAW 30.3% 3.21 AWAY 28.8% 3.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Club Atletico Libertad

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Atletico Libertad Emelec

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Atletico Libertad Emelec

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Emelec has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Atletico Libertad Emelec

The combined recent performance profile favours Emelec.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Club Atletico Libertad ↓ -0.39 (-14.1%)

Emelec ↑ +0.84 (+33.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.