Independiente del Valle vs Macara

06 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Independiente del Valle

Macara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.8% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.3% 1.41 DRAW 19.9% 4.84 AWAY 11.8% 8.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Macara

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente del Valle Macara

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente del Valle Macara

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente del Valle Macara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Independiente del Valle ↓ -0.09 (-5.8%)

Macara ↑ +2.15 (+35.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.