SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil

07 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

SD Aucas

Barcelona Guayaquil

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 19.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.1% 1.76 DRAW 26.2% 3.70 AWAY 18.7% 5.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Barcelona Guayaquil

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

SD Aucas Barcelona Guayaquil

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Barcelona Guayaquil, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SD Aucas Barcelona Guayaquil

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 2.8

SD Aucas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SD Aucas Barcelona Guayaquil

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

SD Aucas ↓ -0.62 (-25.9%)

Barcelona Guayaquil ↑ +1.86 (+56.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.