JK Nomme United II vs JK Tallinna Kalev

10 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

JK Nomme United II

JK Tallinna Kalev

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.9% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 41.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% 2.55 DRAW 21.9% 4.50 AWAY 39.4% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: JK Tallinna Kalev

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

JK Nomme United II JK Tallinna Kalev

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

JK Nomme United II JK Tallinna Kalev

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 8.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.5

JK Tallinna Kalev has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

JK Nomme United II JK Tallinna Kalev

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

JK Nomme United II ↓ -0.03 (-1.1%)

JK Tallinna Kalev ↑ +0.34 (+15.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.