FC Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond

10 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

FC Tallinn

Maardu Linnameeskond

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.8% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 52.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.3% 3.50 DRAW 22.2% 4.45 AWAY 49.5% 2.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Maardu Linnameeskond relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.2% win probability, compared with 49.5% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Maardu Linnameeskond has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Tallinn Maardu Linnameeskond

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Maardu Linnameeskond, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Tallinn Maardu Linnameeskond

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Tallinn Maardu Linnameeskond

The combined recent performance profile favours Maardu Linnameeskond.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

FC Tallinn ↑ +0.67 (+23.7%)

Maardu Linnameeskond ↓ -0.05 (-2.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.