Tartu JK Welco vs JK Nomme Kalju II

14 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Tartu JK Welco

JK Nomme Kalju II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.1% DRAW 9.2% AWAY 7.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.8% 1.20 DRAW 10.8% 9.00 AWAY 8.4% 11.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Tartu JK Welco has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tartu JK Welco JK Nomme Kalju II

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Tartu JK Welco, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tartu JK Welco JK Nomme Kalju II

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tartu JK Welco JK Nomme Kalju II

The combined recent performance profile favours Tartu JK Welco.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Tartu JK Welco ↓ -0.02 (-1.7%)

JK Nomme Kalju II ↑ +1.95 (+20.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.