Maardu Linnameeskond vs JK Tallinna Kalev

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Maardu Linnameeskond

JK Tallinna Kalev

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 36.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.3% 2.30 DRAW 21.5% 4.20 AWAY 39.3% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Maardu Linnameeskond relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 39.3% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Maardu Linnameeskond

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maardu Linnameeskond JK Tallinna Kalev

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 15.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maardu Linnameeskond JK Tallinna Kalev

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 8.5

Maardu Linnameeskond has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maardu Linnameeskond JK Tallinna Kalev

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Maardu Linnameeskond = (0.0%)

JK Tallinna Kalev ↓ -0.10 (-4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.