Viimsi JK vs Tartu JK Welco

17 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Viimsi JK

Tartu JK Welco

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.3% 1.92 DRAW 22.1% 4.20 AWAY 29.6% 3.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Viimsi JK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.1% win probability, compared with 48.3% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Viimsi JK has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Viimsi JK Tartu JK Welco

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Viimsi JK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Viimsi JK Tartu JK Welco

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Viimsi JK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Viimsi JK Tartu JK Welco

The combined recent performance profile favours Viimsi JK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Viimsi JK ↓ -0.35 (-15.4%)

Tartu JK Welco ↑ +0.58 (+22.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.