Gremio Novorizontino vs Cuiaba

13 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Gremio Novorizontino

Cuiaba

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 15.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% 1.71 DRAW 26.9% 3.62 AWAY 16.2% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gremio Novorizontino

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba

Shots 16.3 · On target 7.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Novorizontino, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Novorizontino Cuiaba

The combined recent performance profile favours Gremio Novorizontino.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Gremio Novorizontino ↓ -0.16 (-8.5%)

Cuiaba ↑ +1.31 (+27.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.