Cuiaba vs Athletic Club MG

09 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Cuiaba

Athletic Club MG

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.2% DRAW 30.1% AWAY 17.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.97 DRAW 30.4% 3.20 AWAY 20.2% 4.83

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cuiaba relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.2% win probability, compared with 49.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Cuiaba

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cuiaba Athletic Club MG

Shots 12.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cuiaba Athletic Club MG

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 6.8

Cuiaba has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cuiaba Athletic Club MG

The combined recent performance profile favours Cuiaba.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Cuiaba ↑ +0.09 (+5.3%)

Athletic Club MG ↓ -0.27 (-5.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.