Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo SP

06 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Ponte Preta

Sao Bernardo SP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 8.8% DRAW 16.9% AWAY 74.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.2% 9.50 DRAW 18.4% 5.30 AWAY 71.4% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sao Bernardo SP relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.3% win probability, compared with 71.4% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sao Bernardo SP has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ponte Preta Sao Bernardo SP

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 12.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Sao Bernardo SP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ponte Preta Sao Bernardo SP

Shots allowed 21.3 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Sao Bernardo SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ponte Preta Sao Bernardo SP

The combined recent performance profile favours Sao Bernardo SP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ponte Preta ↓ -8.00 (-42.1%)

Sao Bernardo SP ↑ +0.13 (+11.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.