Vila Nova vs Londrina

26 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.2 pp

Vila Nova

Londrina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.4% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 21.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.6% 1.73 DRAW 26.5% 3.63 AWAY 17.9% 5.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Londrina relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 21.1% win probability, compared with 17.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Londrina has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vila Nova Londrina

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 19.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Londrina, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vila Nova Londrina

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Londrina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vila Nova Londrina

The combined recent performance profile favours Londrina.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Vila Nova ↓ -0.05 (-3.2%)

Londrina ↑ +0.85 (+15.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.