Nautico vs Operario PR

16 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Nautico

Operario PR

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.0% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 16.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.6% 1.90 DRAW 27.7% 3.54 AWAY 20.7% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nautico clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.0% win probability, compared with 51.6% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nautico has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nautico Operario PR

Shots 14.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Nautico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nautico Operario PR

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Nautico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nautico Operario PR

The combined recent performance profile favours Nautico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nautico ↓ -0.05 (-2.7%)

Operario PR ↑ +0.23 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.