Londrina vs Ponte Preta

16 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Londrina

Ponte Preta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.6% DRAW 15.1% AWAY 7.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.7% 1.33 DRAW 17.6% 5.51 AWAY 9.7% 10.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Londrina clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.6% win probability, compared with 72.7% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Londrina has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Londrina Ponte Preta

Shots 15.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Londrina, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Londrina Ponte Preta

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 20.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Londrina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Londrina Ponte Preta

The combined recent performance profile favours Londrina.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Londrina ↑ +0.01 (+0.9%)

Ponte Preta ↑ +0.75 (+7.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.