Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta

11 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Sport Recife

Ponte Preta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 85.4% DRAW 10.1% AWAY 4.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 82.5% 1.17 DRAW 12.0% 8.07 AWAY 5.5% 17.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sport Recife relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 85.4% win probability, compared with 82.5% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sport Recife has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sport Recife Ponte Preta

Shots 16.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Sport Recife, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sport Recife Ponte Preta

Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 21.3 · On target allowed 9.3

Sport Recife has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sport Recife Ponte Preta

The combined recent performance profile favours Sport Recife.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sport Recife ↑ +0.00 (+0.2%)

Ponte Preta ↑ +4.09 (+30.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.