Nautico vs Botafogo SP

04 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.1 pp

Nautico

Botafogo SP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.96 DRAW 29.0% 3.34 AWAY 21.5% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nautico clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.5% win probability, compared with 49.4% implied by the market. The 5.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nautico has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nautico Botafogo SP

Shots 20.0 · On target 7.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Nautico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nautico Botafogo SP

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Nautico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nautico Botafogo SP

The combined recent performance profile favours Nautico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nautico ↑ +0.12 (+6.2%)

Botafogo SP ↓ -0.24 (-5.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.