Gremio Novorizontino vs Avai

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Gremio Novorizontino

Avai

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.5% DRAW 21.9% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.9% 1.48 DRAW 23.1% 4.10 AWAY 13.1% 7.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gremio Novorizontino relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.5% win probability, compared with 63.9% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Gremio Novorizontino has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Novorizontino Avai

Shots 18.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Novorizontino, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Novorizontino Avai

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Gremio Novorizontino has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Novorizontino Avai

The combined recent performance profile favours Gremio Novorizontino.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Gremio Novorizontino ↓ -0.05 (-3.5%)

Avai ↑ +0.19 (+2.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.