Avai vs Vila Nova

15 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Avai

Vila Nova

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.2% DRAW 31.5% AWAY 34.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% 2.71 DRAW 31.1% 3.10 AWAY 33.3% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Vila Nova

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Avai Vila Nova

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Vila Nova, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Avai Vila Nova

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Avai Vila Nova

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Avai ↑ +0.21 (+8.4%)

Vila Nova ↓ -0.06 (-2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.