Vila Nova vs Goias

11 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Vila Nova

Goias

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.1% DRAW 31.8% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 2.10 DRAW 31.9% 3.04 AWAY 21.9% 4.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vila Nova relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.1% win probability, compared with 46.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Vila Nova

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vila Nova Goias

Shots 15.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Vila Nova, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vila Nova Goias

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vila Nova Goias

The combined recent performance profile favours Vila Nova.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Vila Nova ↓ -0.08 (-3.8%)

Goias ↑ +0.03 (+0.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.