Goias vs Fortaleza

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Goias

Fortaleza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 32.3% AWAY 33.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.9% 2.70 DRAW 31.8% 3.05 AWAY 32.3% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Fortaleza

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Goias Fortaleza

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 17.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Fortaleza, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Goias Fortaleza

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Goias Fortaleza

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Goias ↑ +0.38 (+16.4%)

Fortaleza ↓ -0.30 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.