CRB vs Sport Recife

16 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

CRB

Sport Recife

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.8% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.2% 1.88 DRAW 26.0% 3.69 AWAY 22.8% 4.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CRB relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.8% win probability, compared with 51.2% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CRB

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CRB Sport Recife

Shots 21.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 18.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours CRB, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CRB Sport Recife

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CRB Sport Recife

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

CRB ↑ +0.08 (+4.1%)

Sport Recife ↓ -0.30 (-6.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.