EC Juventude vs Athletic Club MG

13 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

EC Juventude

Athletic Club MG

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.8% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 14.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% 1.70 DRAW 27.3% 3.53 AWAY 16.1% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

EC Juventude has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

EC Juventude Athletic Club MG

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours EC Juventude, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

EC Juventude Athletic Club MG

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 6.3

EC Juventude has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

EC Juventude Athletic Club MG

The combined recent performance profile favours EC Juventude.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

EC Juventude ↑ +0.07 (+4.2%)

Athletic Club MG ↑ +0.27 (+4.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.