America MG vs Sao Bernardo SP

15 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

America MG

Sao Bernardo SP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 31.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.3% 2.68 DRAW 29.9% 3.25 AWAY 33.8% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: America MG

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

America MG Sao Bernardo SP

Shots 21.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours America MG, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

America MG Sao Bernardo SP

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Sao Bernardo SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

America MG Sao Bernardo SP

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

America MG ↓ -0.05 (-2.1%)

Sao Bernardo SP ↑ +0.23 (+7.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.