Fortaleza vs Ceara

13 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Fortaleza

Ceara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.5% DRAW 28.6% AWAY 19.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.6% 1.95 DRAW 28.9% 3.35 AWAY 21.5% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Fortaleza has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fortaleza Ceara

Shots 14.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fortaleza Ceara

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Fortaleza has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fortaleza Ceara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Fortaleza ↑ +0.20 (+11.1%)

Ceara ↓ -0.57 (-11.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.