Tallinna JK Legion vs FA Tartu Kalev

10 Sep 2026 · 16:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Tallinna JK Legion

FA Tartu Kalev

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.1% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 58.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.4% 5.75 DRAW 19.5% 5.40 AWAY 62.1% 1.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tallinna JK Legion relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.1% win probability, compared with 18.4% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tallinna JK Legion

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tallinna JK Legion FA Tartu Kalev

Shots 17.5 · On target 7.5 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Tallinna JK Legion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tallinna JK Legion FA Tartu Kalev

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 8.5 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.5

FA Tartu Kalev has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tallinna JK Legion FA Tartu Kalev

The combined recent performance profile favours Tallinna JK Legion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Tallinna JK Legion ↓ -2.10 (-26.8%)

FA Tartu Kalev ↑ +0.43 (+33.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.