Parnu JK Vaprus II vs FA Tartu Kalev

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.4 pp

Parnu JK Vaprus II

FA Tartu Kalev

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.2% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 25.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.8% 1.97 DRAW 21.8% 4.33 AWAY 30.4% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Parnu JK Vaprus II substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.2% win probability, compared with 47.8% implied by the market. The 6.4 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Parnu JK Vaprus II

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Parnu JK Vaprus II FA Tartu Kalev

Shots 17.3 · On target 9.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Parnu JK Vaprus II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Parnu JK Vaprus II FA Tartu Kalev

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 8.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Parnu JK Vaprus II FA Tartu Kalev

The combined recent performance profile favours Parnu JK Vaprus II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Parnu JK Vaprus II ↑ +0.13 (+7.1%)

FA Tartu Kalev ↓ -0.03 (-0.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.