Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Johvi FC Phoenix

10 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Parnu JK Vaprus II

Johvi FC Phoenix

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 23.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.2% 2.10 DRAW 21.5% 5.09 AWAY 26.2% 4.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Parnu JK Vaprus II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.1% win probability, compared with 52.2% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Parnu JK Vaprus II

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Parnu JK Vaprus II Johvi FC Phoenix

Shots 21.3 · On target 11.0 Shots 16.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Parnu JK Vaprus II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Parnu JK Vaprus II Johvi FC Phoenix

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Parnu JK Vaprus II Johvi FC Phoenix

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Parnu JK Vaprus II ↓ -0.03 (-1.4%)

Johvi FC Phoenix ↑ +1.68 (+67.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.