Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Orense

13 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Orense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.1% DRAW 20.6% AWAY 12.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.5% 1.44 DRAW 21.8% 4.26 AWAY 13.7% 6.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Universidad Catolica del Ecuador relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.1% win probability, compared with 64.5% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Orense

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 16.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Orense

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 7.5

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Orense

The combined recent performance profile favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador ↑ +0.04 (+3.1%)

Orense ↓ -0.62 (-8.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.