Türkiye vs France

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Türkiye

France

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.9% DRAW 16.9% AWAY 70.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.4% 8.53 DRAW 16.9% 5.75 AWAY 71.6% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Türkiye

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Türkiye France

Shots 17.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 16.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Türkiye France

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Türkiye France

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Türkiye ↑ +1.87 (+28.5%)

France ↓ -0.15 (-9.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.