Italy vs Belgium

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Italy

Belgium

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 32.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% 2.20 DRAW 27.1% 3.60 AWAY 28.5% 3.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Belgium relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 32.2% win probability, compared with 28.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Belgium

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Italy Belgium

Shots 8.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 18.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Belgium, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Italy Belgium

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Italy Belgium

The combined recent performance profile favours Belgium.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Italy ↑ +0.06 (+2.8%)

Belgium ↓ -0.07 (-2.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.