Hungary vs Ukraine

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Hungary

Ukraine

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.7% DRAW 30.4% AWAY 29.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% 2.55 DRAW 30.3% 3.20 AWAY 31.7% 3.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the home side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hungary Ukraine

Shots 13.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Hungary, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hungary Ukraine

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hungary Ukraine

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Hungary ↑ +0.41 (+17.9%)

Ukraine ↓ -0.39 (-11.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.