Sweden vs Romania

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Sweden

Romania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.7% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 14.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.5% 1.49 DRAW 20.1% 4.86 AWAY 14.5% 6.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sweden Romania

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sweden Romania

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sweden Romania

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sweden ↓ -0.05 (-3.2%)

Romania ↑ +0.77 (+12.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.