Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Poland

Bosnia-Herzegovina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% DRAW 33.3% AWAY 22.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.0% 3.37 DRAW 32.9% 4.41 AWAY 24.1% 6.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Poland has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Poland Bosnia-Herzegovina

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Poland Bosnia-Herzegovina

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Poland has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Poland Bosnia-Herzegovina

The combined recent performance profile favours Poland.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Poland ↓ -0.12 (-7.2%)

Bosnia-Herzegovina ↑ +0.75 (+14.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.