San Marino vs Finland

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

San Marino

Finland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 3.7% DRAW 7.7% AWAY 88.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 2.8% 34.00 DRAW 7.4% 13.00 AWAY 89.8% 1.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Finland

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

San Marino Finland

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

San Marino Finland

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 4.5

San Marino has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

San Marino Finland

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

San Marino ↓ -3.00 (-8.8%)

Finland ↓ -0.04 (-3.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.