Iceland vs Estonia

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Iceland

Estonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.1% DRAW 16.5% AWAY 10.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.7% 1.28 DRAW 15.9% 6.08 AWAY 8.3% 11.66

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Estonia

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Iceland Estonia

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Iceland Estonia

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Estonia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Iceland Estonia

The combined recent performance profile favours Estonia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Iceland ↓ -0.03 (-2.3%)

Estonia ↑ +1.50 (+14.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.