Gremio Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo SP

26 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.5 pp

Gremio Novorizontino

Sao Bernardo SP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.1% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 11.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.6% 1.52 DRAW 22.6% 4.27 AWAY 13.8% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Gremio Novorizontino clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.1% win probability, compared with 63.6% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Gremio Novorizontino has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Novorizontino Sao Bernardo SP

Shots 18.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Novorizontino, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Novorizontino Sao Bernardo SP

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Gremio Novorizontino has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Novorizontino Sao Bernardo SP

The combined recent performance profile favours Gremio Novorizontino.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Gremio Novorizontino ↑ +0.04 (+2.5%)

Sao Bernardo SP ↑ +0.42 (+7.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.