Deportes Recoleta (W) vs Universidad de Concepcion (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Deportes Recoleta (W)

Universidad de Concepcion (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.8% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 64.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.2% 5.11 DRAW 20.0% 4.65 AWAY 61.7% 1.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Universidad de Concepcion (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.5% win probability, compared with 61.7% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportes Recoleta (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportes Recoleta (W) Universidad de Concepcion (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportes Recoleta (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportes Recoleta (W) Universidad de Concepcion (W)

Shots allowed 26.3 · On target allowed 14.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Universidad de Concepcion (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportes Recoleta (W) Universidad de Concepcion (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Deportes Recoleta (W) ↑ +0.11 (+2.2%)

Universidad de Concepcion (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.