FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty

17 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.5 pp

FC Astana

Kairat Almaty

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.1% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 43.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% 2.80 DRAW 27.6% 3.45 AWAY 38.5% 2.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Kairat Almaty clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.9% win probability, compared with 38.5% implied by the market. The 5.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Kairat Almaty has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Astana Kairat Almaty

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours Kairat Almaty, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Astana Kairat Almaty

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Kairat Almaty has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Astana Kairat Almaty

The combined recent performance profile favours Kairat Almaty.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FC Astana ↓ -0.32 (-10.1%)

Kairat Almaty ↑ +0.18 (+7.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.