Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Kairat Almaty

Tobol Kostanay

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.3% DRAW 19.3% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.3% 1.42 DRAW 20.1% 4.77 AWAY 12.7% 7.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Kairat Almaty

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Kairat Almaty Tobol Kostanay

Shots 12.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Kairat Almaty Tobol Kostanay

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Kairat Almaty has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Kairat Almaty Tobol Kostanay

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Kairat Almaty ↓ -0.41 (-22.3%)

Tobol Kostanay ↑ +3.44 (+83.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.