Valmiera FC vs Metta/LU

05 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.9 pp

Valmiera FC

Metta/LU

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.6% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 58.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.8% 3.95 DRAW 24.1% 3.90 AWAY 52.1% 1.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Metta/LU clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.1% win probability, compared with 52.1% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Metta/LU has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Valmiera FC Metta/LU

Shots 11.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 24.5 · On target 12.5

Recent attacking output favours Metta/LU, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Valmiera FC Metta/LU

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Valmiera FC Metta/LU

The combined recent performance profile favours Metta/LU.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Valmiera FC ↑ +0.32 (+8.8%)

Metta/LU ↑ +0.10 (+5.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.